AMERICAN RIVER WATERSHED GROUP

November 18, 2004

The meeting of the American River Watershed Group (ARWG) meeting was called to order by Bill Templin, American River Watershed Coordinator at 10:02 a.m. at Placer County Water Agency’s American River Room located at 144 Ferguson Road, Auburn.

Present: Bill Templin, American River Watershed Coordinator; Katie Maloney, Placer County Resource Conservation District (RCD); Marie Davis, Placer County Water Agency (PCWA) Consultant; Rich Johnson, US Forest Service (USFS) American River District Ranger; Carol Kennedy, USFS Watershed Program Manager –Tahoe Nat’l Forest; John Lane, Teichert Aggregates; Marilyn Jasper, Clover Valley Foundation and Sierra Club; Eric Nichol, CA Dept. of Water Resources (DWR); Kevin Roberts, Sierra Pacific Industries (SPI); Sue Stack, Private Citizen; Jill Dampier, State Parks – Auburn State Recreation Area; Tom Cosgrove, State Assemblyman Tim Leslie’s Field Representative; Mal Toy, PCWA; Mike Hunerlach, US Geological Survey (USGS); and Tim Dabney; USFS District Ranger Eldorado Nat’l Forest.

Check-In:

Bill Templin led the “Check-In” procedure that entails telling meeting participants who you are, how you are, any time constraints, the identification of desired stakeholders not present, emergent issues, and individual expectations.

Review & Approval of Minutes:

No changes were made to the minutes.

Additions to the Agenda:

No additions were made to the agenda.

Guest Speaker – Carol Kennedy – “Weather and Climate Change”:

Carol Kennedy noted that climate change has been a personal interest of hers and that she has conducted an extensive literature review on the subject. Carol’s listed references including US EPA, US Forest Service, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Union of Concerned Scientists, Ecological Society of America, and University CA - San Diego. The PowerPoint presentation Carol presented is a result of her interest in and subsequent exploration of “Climate Change”.

Information Carol covered in her presentation included, but was not limited to the following:

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II key findings observed, “Recent regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases, have already affected many physical and biological systems.”

• Current Climate Indicators:

• There are clear correlations between increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperature increases.
• The current level of carbon dioxide is in the upper range of natural variability.
• The rate of change in carbon dioxide levels is unprecedented.
• On average, between 1950 and 1993 night-time air temperature have increased about twice the rate of day time temperatures.
• Greenhouse gases do not dissipate quickly and stay in the atmosphere a long time.
• The freeze-free (growing) season in many mid to high latitude regions has increased.
• Precipitation has increased an average of 10% across the US, with much of the increase attributed to heavy participation events.
• The last two decades show an increase in both the number of wet years and the number of dry years.
• Current precipitation in the West has generally increased, with some areas increasing by greater that 50%, other areas have become drier.
• Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 10% since the late 1960’s with a reduction of about 2 weeks in the annual duration of lake and river ice cover in mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the last 100 years.
• In parts of interior Alaska, permafrost surface has warmed by about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1960’s with thawing causing the ground to subside 16-33 feet.
• The length of the snow season decreased by 16 days from 1951 to 1996 in CA and NV.
• There has been widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar regions.
• Nationally, streamflow has increased by about 30% in the last 100 years.
• Regionally, streamflows have been higher in many areas, but not in the West where snowmelt dominates peak flows.
• In snowpack-dominated streams, a shift has been observed in the timing of the peak runoff to earlier in the season.
• Earlier snowpack melting in the Sierra Nevada has resulted in mountain streams going dry by summer and 12% less spring and summer snowmelt in the Sacramento River than 100 years ago.
• The fraction of the annual runoff from the central Sierra that occurs in late spring has been decreasing for approximately the past 50 years.
• Relatively more of the annual runoff has been occurring in the winter.
• Winter and spring temperatures have become warmer in the central Sierra.
• Trends in the timing of spring runoff indicate the peak of runoff is moving earlier into the spring throughout the western US and Canada with advances of 10-30 days from1946 to 2000.
• The two largest flows in the American River system occurred only eleven years part (1986 & 1997) and what was originally thought to be “500 year” flood protection is now estimated to be 75-80 years.
• There has been a general move northward in species range to upper elevations.
• Leafing out of vegetation in spring is occurring 10-45 days earlier and insect emergence is also occurring earlier although changes in biological systems do no necessary shift concurrently.
• There are indicators of earlier arrival of birds in spring and earlier onset of breeding season.
• Tide gauge data show that global average sea level rose between 3.9 and 10 inches during the last 100 years.
• There has been a 9 inch rise in sea level in South Florida since 1930.

• Climate Change Predictions:
• Global climate is changing rapidly.
• The latest projections for CA show that regional warming and its consequences depend on the rate of accumulation of heat trapping gases in the atmosphere.
• The most severe consequences for CA can be avoided if responsible measures are taken now.
• If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions carbon dioxide levels will likely be more that 700 parts per million by 2100.
• Global average temperatures are projected to increase between 2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
• Temperature increases speed up global water cycles resulting in more extreme weather events including droughts, storms, and floods.
• Modeling has indicated that CA will become dryer and experience more extreme weather events.
• The latest projections for CA are an average increase in temperature of 4-10.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the next 100 years
• Summer temperatures in the Central Valley could increase 14.5-18 degrees Fahrenheit.
• Winter precipitation projections range from a decrease of 30% to a slight increase (5%).
• Spring snowmelt is expected to decline (30-90%) and melt prematurely.
• In most cases total annual streamflow into major Sierra Nevada reservoirs is projected to drop by 10-20% before mid-century and 25-30% before the end of the century.
• Spring and summer streamflows are projected to decrease 10-25% by mid-century and 40-55% by the end of the century
• There is a strong consensus among researchers that there is likely to be a shift in the peak volume and timing of runoff for watersheds that are affected by winter snowpack resulting in earlier spring runoff, higher winter flows, and lower summer flows.
• Modeling for the American River showed 61% decrease in snowpack and a major shift in streamflow timing.
• Hydrologic impacts of climate change impact major planning issues:
  • reliability of water supply
  • water quality management
  • instream flow management for protected species
  • habitat restoration and management
  • flood control
  • forest health and fire rise
  • energy production
• Climate change impacts increase competition for water and vulnerability to drought.
• Lower soil moisture in predicted for CA due to loss of snow pack.

• Forest Ecosystems and Forestry:
• Projected increase in temperature and fire frequency will likely cause rapid changes in vegetation distribution with serious implications for ecosystem health and species diversity.
• Alpine and sub-alpine vegetation will likely be displaced as mixed evergreen conifer forests extend their range upward in elevation and losses are projected at 40-80% loss of alpine and sub-alpine vegetation.
• Throughout much of the northern part of CA, forest composition will change from evergreen conifer forests (dominated by Douglas fir and white fir) to mixed evergreen forests (dominated by tan oak, madrone, and live oak).
• Warmer temperatures and drier conditions in most inland areas are expected to increase fire frequency, leading to likely displacement of shrublands and woodlands by grasslands.
• Projected increases in humidity along the southern coast would discourage fire, allowing coastal forests to expand their range.

• Natural Systems and Species are at Risk:
• The EPA estimates that a 2 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature could lead to a 25% reduction in duck population in the US.
• The ability of plant and animal species to migrate under climate change is strongly influenced by their dispersal abilities and by disturbances to the landscape.
• Climate changes that affect the timing of plant or animal life history events such as leaf emergence, flowering, and egg hatching could also threaten biodiversity by disrupting vital interactions between species, from predation to pollination
• Some of the long distance migrants will suffer from climate change, because either their migration strategy is unaffected by climate change, or the climate in breeding and wintering areas are changing at different speeds, preventing adequate adaptation.
• The ranges of tree species favoring cool climates are likely to shift north (sugar maple and birch).
• The ranges for sub-alpine conifers will be reduced in the western US (Englemann spruce, mountain hemlock, and several fir species) with a slight chance that Quaking Aspen and Englemann spruce will not survive under projected climate change.
• Expansion of potential habitats is possible for oaks, hickory, and pines in the East and for ponderosa pine and arid woodlands in the West.
• Habitat for cold-water fish species will likely decrease in area as habitat for warm-water fish species increases.
• Many potential consequences of future climate change are expected to be buffered by the resilience of forests to natural climatic variation.
• However, an extensive literature review suggests that new disturbance regimes under climate change are likely to result in significant perturbations to US forests, with lasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts
• Forest fires - the seasonal severity of fire hazards is likely to increase by 10% over much of the US, with possibly larger increases in the southeast and Alaska.
• Likely to see a continued expansion of the urban interface into forests.
• Increased fire and drought are likely to lead to the type of environment ripe for the invasion and spread of introduced species.
• Potential for epidemic levels of insects and disease as insects and pathogens, by virtue of their mobility and short reproduction cycles, can respond to climate change much more rapidly than tree populations.
• As a result, insects and disease are likely to cause some of the early impacts of climate change on forests.

• Climate Change and Forestry Solutions:
• Trees and soils provide long term carbon storage.
• Disturbances affect the carbon stocks of all components of forested ecosystems.
• In the case of forest fire, part of the ecosystem carbon is released immediately into the atmosphere as combustion products.
• Disturbed forest stands continue to release carbon into the atmosphere as the enlarged pools of dead matter tend toward a new steady-state condition.
• Re-growth follows, but maximum uptake of carbon may not be achieved for some time (decades or more), and during much of the period decomposition of dead organic matter may exceed vegetative uptake.
• The corresponding re-sequestration of carbon through re-growth can last 50 to 200 years or more.
• Management of natural disturbance regimes can provide significant carbon migration opportunities, e.g., through activities to prevent or suppress disturbances.
• The intent of any mitigation option is to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide relative to that which would occur without implementation of that option.
• Biological approaches to curb the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide can occur by one of three strategies as outlined by the IPCC in 1996:
  • Conservation – Conserving an existing carbon pool, thereby preventing emissions to the atmosphere.
  • Sequestration – Increasing the size of the existing carbon pools, thereby extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
  • Substitution – Substituting biological products for fossil fuels or energy-intensive products, thereby reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
• Many silvicultural and forest management practices have been reported to enhance carbon mitigation.
• Coping strategies for dealing with disturbance effects of forests include managing the system before the disturbance.

Carol fielded questions from the group and encouraged ARWG members to explore the issue further indicating there is 20 years of research and science to explore on the issue.

The group thanked Carol for her time and effort in putting together the “Climate Change” presentation.

Sediment Dynamics Study (SDS) Update:

Bill noted three candidates were interviewed by the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) as one candidate dropped out at the last minute. The TAC has chosen the firm Tetra Tech as the contractor to implement the SDS project as their proposal followed study parameters more closely than the other two candidates and seemed more sensitive to the issue of how the information generated by the study would be used by the group.

Marie Davis added that all the candidates offered useful information regarding potential uses of the information to be generated by the study, including a sub-watershed prioritization and the identification of a scope of Best Management Practices (BMPs) appropriate for issues specifically identified within those sub-watersheds and their specific resource users.

Marie noted the TAC is committed to meeting at least once a month to provide study oversight.

Bill solicited assistance from the group in lobbying for Carol Kennedy’s continued participation in the TAC as her expertise as well as her historical memory regarding the project will be sorely missed should she be pulled from the group by her superiors.

Rich Johnson announced that he will be retiring from the USFS on December 31^st.

Bill joined the group in soliciting Rich’s continued ARWG involvement post retirement.

Bill reported that a few contract issues in the “Remediation Section” of the contract still remain to be worked out with the CA Dept. of Water Resources. A meeting is scheduled for December 2^nd.

The next TAC meeting is slated for December 9^th at 10 a.m. at PCWA.

Activities Update:

• Stevens Fire Rehabilitation: Bill Templin reported there have been many questions regarding sediment levels and a relation to a lack of fish. He indicated a lack of fish had been noted in past seasons before the fire.

• Watershed Coordinator: Bill handed out copies of his monthly activity report and noted it had been sent out with the meeting agenda and solicited questions.

• American River Watershed Portal: Bill noted the addition of USFS-Tahoe National Forest information regarding the Middle Fork Plan to the portal site. He indicated the site is easy to access and handled inquiries as to how to add information to the site.

• American River Watershed Conferences:

CA State University-Sacramento (CSUS): Bill reported his involvement in planning the CSUS American River Conference in collaboration with USFS slated for next spring. He suggested several conference subjects including climate change and inter-watershed water transfers and management. He noted the event provides an opportunity to present where the ARWG is now, their planned SDS effort, and where they will be headed in the future. He noted the upper watershed has been specifically solicited for participation in this year’s event.

Rich Johnson noted that in past years the conference has been focused on the lower watershed and indicated that both Joanne Fites and Steve Eubanks are potential speakers for the conference that will highlight forest management issues.

Regional Watershed Coordination Team (RWCT): Bill reported hosting a planning meeting for an Upper American River Conference slated for May 2005.

• Expansion of South Fork American River (SFAR) Watershed Summit into North Fork American River (NFAR) Watershed: Bill reported interest is being exhibited by Foresthill High School to actively participate in watershed focused activities. He suggested the group consider the potential expansion of the SFAR Watershed Summit into NFAR watershed and solicited comments and feedback.

Group discussion revolved around the definition of NFAR and Bill clarified the NFAR watershed includes both the north and middle forks of the American River.

• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Signatories: Bill solicited potential MOU candidates.

Sub-Committee Reports:

• Placer County Fire Safe Alliance (Alliance): Bill reported the Alliance is mounting an effort to compile a map of fire risk reduction related projects including completed, current, and planned projects. The Alliance has broken themselves into two working groups with fire entities focused on fire planning and project identification and the rest of the Alliance will be focused on funding and implementation of those projects identified. Bill suggested this may be a good model for the ARWG to consider using for its own activities.

• American River Watershed Institute (ARWI): No representatives from ARWI were present. Mal Toy suggested using minutes from ARWI meetings to stay abreast of the institute’s activities.

Next Meeting:

• Agenda Items: Bill suggested the following potential items for future agendas:
  • SFAR Watershed Summit Conference
  • SDS Update
  • Auburn State Recreation Area General Plan Update
  • US Geological Survey Mercury Study Information as it Relates to North & Middle Forks American River

• Open Discussion: None

Adjournment:

The next meeting will take place on December 16^th at the American River Room. The meeting was adjourned at 11:58 a.m.